Lead Forecaster: Alex Woolum Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
on Wednesday, May
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term Discussion (Wednesday 5/17, through, Thursday 5/18)
An upper-level (300-200mb) LW trough continues to cross over the eastern US. A new LW trough associated with a strong upper-level low, which has a embedded SW trough with it, is growing over the Rockies. Thursday the SW trough exits out of the LW trough, and you can see the 500mb jet streak intensify. It places the right entrance region, region of known PVA, right above the southwestern Ohio valley region. Most the PVA on the 500mb level is going to stay to the NW Ohio region, however GFS vorticity products show a few pockets of PVA spinning off the the SE Ohio region. Surface DP's remain in the lower-mid 60's, with environmental temperatures around upper-70's. Soundings throughout the day Thursday show potential for an isolated thunderstorm, but CAPE values remain very low (1000-1500 J/kg). Hodograph shows decent speed and directional shear up to around 3km, but after that it's pretty messy.
Long Term Discussion (Friday 5/19, through, Sunday 5/21)
It's a big battle this week between a LW trough and ridge for our weather pattern. We seem to be on the outskirts of both these boundaries, so we are't going to see nice sunny days or just straight rainy days. It seems like it will be a mix everyday. The upper-level LW trough seen building over the Rockies starts to spin and dwindle out Friday through Sunday. And then it starts to gather itself a bit more over Wisconsin, between Manitoba and Ontario. Friday 500mb vorticity products on GFS & NAM show some PVA moving through, and RH% products remain on the higher range (above 70%) from surface to 850mb. Hodographs are messy Friday although the CAPE and CIN values are primed (CAPE ~2250 J/kg). The soundings so best probability for thunderstorms early Friday afternoon, but as the days progresses that will turn into just rain showers. Precipitation/convection products also agree with this. Saturday we get a break, but Sunday Thunderstorms and strong rain showers are very likely to return due to the upper-level LW trough receding back into Canada; which is going to allow for substantial southeasterly WAA to produce these highly favorable conditions for thunderstorms and strong rain showers. Soundings throughout the day Sunday show a strong increase in lower-to-upper level moisture transfer and the hodograph starts to show a increase in speed AND directional wind shear. Soundings show an increase threat of thunderstorms throughout the evening Sunday, so this will be something to watch for this weekend!