Lead Forecaster: Logan Clark Email: email@example.com
on Wednesday, March
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 3/21 through Saturday 3/24)
The low pressure system that has been influencing our weather will drift off to our east tonight, with any lingering snow flurries tapering off by 10 pm. Cloud coverage will still remain very dense tonight with mostly cloudy skies persisting, but a high pressure system out of the plains region will drift towards the Midwest tonight, and help clear skies out for Thursday and keep us dry through the end of the work week. An upper-level trough at the 250mb/500mb levels will continue to remain over us through midday Friday, helping to keep temperatures cool as north-northwesterly flow continues. Clouds will gradually clear out as we progress through the day Thursday, becoming partly cloudy around noon and persisting throughout most of the day before skies clear out during the evening. Clear skies and light winds out of the NW Thursday night will allow temperatures to dip into the mid-20s. A broad upper-level ridge will begin to propagate eastward over our region on Friday as we progress through the day, which will help temperatures warm up slightly into the mid to upper 40s. Skies will generally remain mostly sunny throughout the day as the high pressure system sits over the Ohio valley region. As we progress through the day Friday, a short-wave trough at the 500mb level will begin to develop in the central plains region, with the combination of PVA at the 500mb level, along with CAA which will help deepen the short-wave. A jet streak with wind speeds near 85 kts at the 500mb level will move through the southern plains region around 18z Friday afternoon, allowing for a low pressure system to form near the left exit region. This jet streak will quickly weaken however, which will begin to weaken the low pressure system fairly quickly as we progress through Friday night into Saturday. The low pressure system will track ENE towards our region heading into Saturday, likely bringing back chances for precip near 15z late Saturday morning. Lows Friday night will dip into the mid-20s again with clear skies to start, becoming partly cloudy after midnight, and then mostly cloudy by Saturday morning as the warm front associated with the low approaches the Ohio valley region. Little insolation Saturday morning along with the warm front staying to our south will keep temperatures fairly cool on Saturday as highs struggle to even reach the lower 40s. 850mb temperatures look to hover around -2C or -3C Saturday as the precip moves in, which may help for a lot of the precip to fall as snow showers throughout the day. A wintry-mix will be possible during the afternoon, but snow looks to be the dominant form of precip, with all snow expected by the evening. We will be caught in a similar situation where a lot of the snow/wintry-mix that falls during the day Saturday will likely melt with surface temperatures approaching 40, which will limit and snow/ice accumulation. Not as much precip is expected from this system, and the snow is expected to taper off between 06z-09z Saturday night. Only an inch or 2 of snow accumulation is expected, with much of it remaining a slush due to the warmer temperatures near the surface.
Long term (Sunday 3/25 through Tuesday 3/27)
The influence of the low pressure system will quickly end by 12z Sunday morning as the low decays, and a high pressure system to our north takes control. The short-wave trough will also propagate eastward with ridging starting to build in again for Sunday, which will help put us in a warming trend to start the work week as the ridge looks to continue to persist. High pressure looks to continue to remain in control through Tuesday night, helping to keep us dry through this period. A gradual warmup is expected as we progress through the work week, with high temperatures approaching the mid-50s by Monday, with highs closer to 60 by Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday as we receive a stronger influence of the high pressure system, but skies will actually become mostly cloudy for Tuesday as the high pressure system begins to drift off to the northeast and we receive a weaker influence of it. Monday night into Tuesday another jet streak at the 500mb level with wind speeds near 90kts will move through the southern plains region and allow for another low pressure system to develop. We will not receive any influence of this system until Wednesday, but another round of rain showers, along with much warmer than average temperatures will be provided for Wednesday as we could see temperatures approach 70. More on this system and temperatures for the end of the next work week will be posted in the next technical discussion.
The next technical discussion will be posted on Sunday, March 25th.