Lead Forecaster: Logan Clark Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
on Sunday, May
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 5/13 through Tuesday 5/15)
An interesting setup in the weather pattern will keep chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the entire week. Weak ridging at the 250mb level will become primarily zonal, and the polar jet stream will generally remain to our north this week, which will limit any fluctuations in the pattern. A stationary front has also formed and will continue to meander throughout the Ohio Valley region, which will provide an isentropic lifting mechanism for the excess moisture in the atmosphere. The 850mb level shows a low-level jet providing warm, moist air out of the Gulf throughout a large portion of the Midwest. As moisture continues to be fed into our region, chances for isolated showers and storms will persist. Dewpoints in the short-term look to remain in the mid to lower 60s throughout the entire period, making the outdoors feel very humid. A passing shower and storms is expected tonight, with scattered storms expected during the day Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be pushing 90 during the day, with overnight lows only dropping into the mid-60s. We look to stay dry Monday night, but chances for storms will return on Tuesday. A line of showers and storms look to move through starting around 21z Tuesday, with some heavy rainfall at times expected. These storms could potentially be severe as the NAM shows surface CAPE values exceeding 2400 J/kg by 21z Tuesday. Pea to quarter sized hail will be possible with this system, so be sure to stay tuned for any watches/warnings issued by the NWS.
Long term (Wednesday 5/16 through Saturday 5/19)
By Wednesday, the stationary front continues to remain just to our south in the Ohio Valley region, which continue to promote vertical motions that will keep chances for isolate storms in the forecast. The NAM shows us remaining dry Wednesday, whereas the GFS keeps chances for showers and storms in the forecast, mainly in the afternoon/evening hours. With the frontal boundary shifting back to our south on Wednesday, slightly cooler temperatures can be expected with highs in the lower 80s. Weak upper-level winds aloft will continue to limit and large fluctuations in the weather pattern however, so chances for showers and storms will be about the same every day through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Daytime highs will be slightly cooler through the end of the work week and weekend as temperatures peak in the lower 80s as opposed to the upper 80s, but even so, instability will continue to remain very high. Dewpoints will also continue to linger around 60, continuing to make the air feel humid.
The next tech discussion will be posted on Sunday, May 20th with the onset of a Storm Chasing trip this week.