Lead Forecaster: Logan Clark Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
on Sunday, October
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 10/15 through Tuesday 10/17)
The NAM/GFS/ECMWF show an upper-level trough taking on a positive tilt at the 250mb level approaching our region. A cold front associated with a low pressure system in the northern Great Lakes region is currently crossing our region along the leading edge of the trough. There is nearly a 20 degree F surface temperature gradient between the cold frontal passage. Temperatures at the 850mb level will also drop from about 16 C to around 1 C tonight after the frontal passage, indicating it will be a very strong cold front. A line of showers and a few thunderstorms are approaching our region and will move through between 5-6pm. CAPE values are around 200 J/kg which is enough to fire up some storms, but they will generally be weak. Chances for precip will diminish during the evening and little accumulation is expected. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with gradual clearing after midnight. With how strong the cold front is, we will still see lows drop into the lower 40s. By Monday morning skies will be partly cloudy and will become mostly sunny by noon. Highs will struggle to reach 60 and lows will drop all the way into the mid-30s. Dewpoints will also be back down near 40 Monday afternoon which will keep RH values very low during the day. A broad region of high pressure is going to settle in on Monday and remain in control for the next several days. Conditions on Tuesday will be similar to Monday with a high around 60, lows in the mid-30s and sunny skies throughout the day.
Long term (Wednesday 10/18 through Sunday 10/22)
The remainder of the week will remain fairly quiet and dry as a broad region of high pressure remains in control. The GFS shows flow at the 250mb level becoming more zonal on Wednesday. A long-wave ridge will then begin to build over much of the US Thursday into Friday. This looks to put us in a slight warming trend, but it will not get nearly as warm as it has been the past couple of weeks. Highs on Thursday will be back into the lower 70s and highs Friday and over the weekend look to be back in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will continue to increase as well, but we will still see lows dropping into the 40s by the end of the week and over the weekend with skies remaining clear throughout the night. The upper-level ridge looks to remain over our region through most of the day Sunday before an upper-level trough begins to replace it as we progress into Sunday night and Monday. This trough will take on a strong positive tilt on Sunday which will act to weaken it as it breaks off from the larger upper-level feature in the jet stream. We may see some rain from this system on Monday, but chances look to remain pretty low as of now.
The next tech discussion will be posted on Wednesday, October 15th.