Lead Forecaster: Logan Clark Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
on Sunday, June
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 6/25 through Tuesday 6/27)
The GFS/NAM/ECMWF models all show a very broad upper-level trough over the eastern half of the US at the 250mb/500mb levels. The trough takes on a slight positive tilt and has a noticeably strong jet streak near 140kts at the 250mb level. Today and the start of tomorrow we look to remain dry with cooler summer-time temperatures with the help of some CAA out of the NW from the upper-level trough. Dew point temperatures took a huge drop as well compared to the last couple of weeks as dew points will hover around the upper 40s and lower 50s through the first half of the week. A low pressure system currently resides over the Great Lakes and will linger around until Tuesday of this week. This system will provide some instability for our region, primarily late on Monday and into the early part of Tuesday as a cold front is expected to move through Monday night. Parts of northern Ohio will see greater chances for showers and storms to develop, but the NAM only spits out about 200 J/kg of CAPE in our region Monday evening. A decent amount of low-level shear will be present on Monday with about 20kts at the 850mb level, but limited moisture availability will likely only put us at about a 20-30% chance to see a stray shower. The models are in agreement in showing the upper-level trough taking a very strong positive tilt around 06z on Tuesday at the 250mb/500mb levels. This shows signs of a weakening trough and the models show at the 500mb level that the trough begins to break apart. After a slight chance for a stray shower Tuesday morning after the frontal passage, a cool high pressure behind the front will begin to settle in. The rest of the day Tuesday we look to remain dry with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures only reaching the lower 70s.
Long term (Wednesday 6/28 through Saturday 7/1)
High pressure will keep us dry and cool as it continues to stay in place through the beginning of the day Thursday. Wednesday we can expect skies to be mostly sunny and temperatures will continue to remain comfortable with highs in the upper 70s. Late Wednesday into the early part of Thursday morning, the high pressure system begins to drift to our southeast and will begin to pump warm, moist air into our region. Thursday the summer-like temperatures will rebound as highs will approach the upper 80s and dew points will be back into the lower 60s. A low pressure system drifting east from the central plains will make its way into the Great Lakes region on Thursday and provide chances for showers and storms to develop around us. Chances are kept lower for now, but with increased moisture levels and higher instability levels from the GFS showing over 2000 J/kg of CAPE, I think chances will increase as the week progresses. The GFS shows a short-wave trough forming near the end of the work week, which looks to provide continuous unsettled weather Thursday through Saturday. On Friday, the GFS shows some very scattered precip developing all throughout Ohio with the influence of the low pressure system near the Great Lakes. I am only putting chances at about 40% on Friday however due to how unorganized any of the precip will be. Saturday/Saturday night will be more likely that SE Ohio sees some storms develop. This is due to an apparent cold front passage Saturday night as the 850mb level shows CAA working its way into our region. The cold front appears to be fairly weak however as temperatures at the 850mb level only drop to around 10 degrees Celsius. High temperatures Sunday also look to remain fairly warm in the lower 80s and dew points will stick in the lower 60s.