Lead Forecaster: Logan Clark Email: email@example.com
on Tuesday, December
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Tuesday 12/12 through Thursday 12/14)
The upper-level trough over our region at the 250mb level will advect much colder temperatures into our region tonight, allowing for lows to dip into the mid-teens even with mostly cloudy skies persisting. Temperatures at the 850mb level will drop to nearly -17C tonight with the CAA occurring. The upper-level trough will become very negatively tilted as we progress through the night and weaken the meridional pattern in the jet stream. Another Alberta Clipper will begin to drift towards the Midwest tomorrow as it follows the left exit region of a jet streak aloft. A warm front will move through our region around 00z Wednesday evening, providing a chance for a wintry mix during the afternoon ahead of the front. Highs on Wednesday will approach the upper 30s which will keep chances for a rain/snow mix in the forecast through the early portion of Wednesday night. The warm sector will be very small, allowing for the cold front to cross shortly after the warm frontal passage. Temperatures at the 850mb level will rise up to around -4C around 00z, but will then quickly drop back to around -13C by 18z Thursday afternoon. Some lingering snow flurries will continue through the early part of Thursday morning before the air dries out behind the cold frontal passage. Precip accumulation will remain very light in SE Ohio with less than 0.1 inches of liquid equivalent expected from this system. High pressure in the Midwest will settle in behind the frontal passage, but will remain relatively weak with pressure only rising to around 1020mb Thursday evening. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Thursday with highs halting around freezing during the daytime. With high pressure dominating Thursday night, we may see partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, allowing for lows to drop back down into the teens.
Long term (Friday 12/15 through Monday 12/18)
The high pressure system behind the frontal passage will quickly drift eastward out of our region on Friday. Flow at the 250mb level will become primarily zonal over the Midwest on Friday, keeping conditions relatively quiet and calm for Friday. Temperatures on Friday will continue to remain chilly with highs only reaching the mid-30s as skies remain mostly cloudy. As we progress into the day Saturday, the weather pattern will finally shift with a weak upper-level ridge building over the eastern portion of the US. High pressure in the southeastern states will begin to build in for Saturday through Saturday night. WAA will increase during the day Saturday as highs rise back up into the mid-40s. The ridge will continue to amplify as we progress through the day Saturday, but another developing low pressure system associated with an upper-level trough will propagate eastward towards our region Saturday night. Temperatures Sunday morning will rapidly increase with a warm front moving through around 12z. We look to remain dry for the start of Sunday after the warm frontal passage, but chances for rain showers will increase during the mid- afternoon with an approaching cold front. Temperatures look to be warm enough for only rain to fall as the 540 (rain- snow) line remains as far north as Columbus. Rainfall accumulation looks to remain around 0.15 inches in SE Ohio, with up to 0.20 inches possible. Some precip may linger into Sunday night with the potential for some snow flurries as temperatures drop to around freezing, but no snow accumulation can be expected. High pressure behind the cold frontal passage will dry us out by Monday morning. The high pressure system will be around the southeastern states again, allowing for increased WAA into the Midwest. Highs on Monday will be able to reach the mid-40s again with skies becoming mostly clear by Monday night.
The next technical discussion will be posted on Sunday, December 17th.