Lead Forecaster: Logan Clark Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
on Sunday, August
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 8/20 through Tuesday 8/22)
The GFS/NAM/ECMWF models show flow in the jet stream at the 250mb level remaining primarily zonal Sunday night through Monday. We will continue to remain under the influence of a high pressure system tonight and throughout the day Monday. Winds will remain fairly calm tonight with mostly clear skies, but lows will remain in the mid to upper 60s. Surface winds will begin to pick up during the day Monday around 10kts or so and will continue to bring in more moisture as the high pressure system remains to our southeast. Skies will be mostly clear in the morning, but we can expect a few more clouds to roll in during the afternoon. During the time of the eclipse skies will primarily be mostly sunny, but some clouds may potentially hinder visibility in select areas in SE Ohio. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy tomorrow with highs approaching 90 and dewpoints hovering around 70. Clouds will continue to linger around Monday night and keep lows in the upper 60s. By Tuesday, the high pressure system will have drifted farther to our southeast and a new low pressure system approaching the Great Lakes region will begin to influence our weather. The NAM is currently showing us at about 2500 J/kg of CAPE by early afternoon on Tuesday, meaning the possibility of seeing a thunderstorm then is likely. Chances for showers and storms will increase as we progress throughout the day Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. The NAM shows some CAA entering our region during the early evening, likely indicating the frontal passage will happen sometime during the late evening hours. Skew-t soundings at 0z show surface winds out of the southwest with weak low-level shear, winds slightly backing with height up to the 850mb level, and then veering with height. Any tornadic development in our area seems very unlikely, but heavy rain and flash flooding will be a potential threat during the frontal passage. Chances for showers and storms will continue overnight Tuesday before the rain tapers off early Wednesday morning. Temperatures at the 850mb will continue to drop overnight Tuesday to around 10 degrees Celsius, indicating this cold front will be very strong.
Long term (Wednesday 8/23 through Saturday 8/26)
A cool, broad region of high pressure in Manitoba, Canada will begin to settle in Wednesday and will drift slightly to the southeast closer to our region, keeping temperatures and humidity much more comfortable over the next few days. High temperatures on Wednesday will take a nice drop into the upper 70s with dewpoints dropping all the way down into the mid-50s. The weather looks to remain pretty quiet through the remainder of the work week and weekend as the high pressure system looks to remain to our north and provide some CAA for our region. The high pressure system will be located near the Great Lakes region by Friday and will continue to slowly drift east over the weekend. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout this period and conditions will continue to remain dry. GFS MOS shows high temperatures staying in the upper 70s during this entire period with lows dropping in the mid to lower 50s. Dewpoints look to remain in the 50s during this time as well, so be sure to take advantage of this break from the heat and humidity.